Results 1 to 10 of about 13,607 (232)
Mortality Forecasting with the Lee-Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity. [PDF]
Eur J Popul, 2021 Reliable mortality forecasts are an essential component of healthcare policies in ageing societies. The Lee-Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted probabilistic approaches to mortality forecasting, due to their simplicity and the straightforward interpretation of the model parameters.
Rabbi AMF, Mazzuco S.
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Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: an extension of the Lee-Carter method. [PDF]
Demography, 2005 Abstract Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human
Li N, Lee R.
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Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections. [PDF]
Demography, 2013 Abstract In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call “rotation.” We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies.
Li N, Lee R, Gerland P.
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All-cause health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi Province, China, 2000–2030: systematic estimation and analysis [PDF]
Preventive Medicine ReportsObjectives: Using Jiangxi Province as a case study, this research aims to evaluate the progress in achieving the national “Healthy China 2030” all-cause health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) targets at the subnational level. Methods: Based on provincial
Jing Ding +5 more
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DemografieThis article discusses the use of the Lee-Carter model, one of the most widely used methods for mortality forecasting. It also discusses its modified versions, namely the cohort and coherent variants, which were developed to improve the forecast accuracy
David Morávek
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Generalization of stochastic mortality models to improve mortality prediction in life insurance and pension funds [PDF]
تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات, 2023 Purpose: Mortality is a dynamic process that completes over time and is a fundamental issue in life insurance, pension fund, health insurance, and in general any issue related to financial planning that deals with the longevity of individuals. Therefore,
Shirin Shoaee +1 more
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Longevity risk—Its financial impact on pensions
Scientific African, 2022 We study the financial impact of longevity risk on defined benefit (DB) pension plan liabilities using the 2010 Ghana population census, and the Lee-Carter model. We compare the usual Lee-Carter model to an extended version. While we observe that Ghana’s
Nana Poku Appiagyei Nantwi +2 more
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Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population
Selecciones Matemáticas, 2021 In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates.
J. Cerda-Hernández, A. Sikov
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Evaluation of Lee–Carter model to breast cancer mortality prediction in China and Pakistan
Frontiers in Oncology, 2023 BackgroundPrecise breast cancer–related mortality forecasts are required for public health program and healthcare service planning. A number of stochastic model–based approaches for predicting mortality have been developed.
Sumaira Mubarik +4 more
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Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method [PDF]
Demography, 2015 AbstractIn this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model.
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz (Arek) +4 more
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