Results 11 to 20 of about 13,607 (232)
Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality [PDF]
Demography, 2001 Abstract Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security.
R, Lee, T, Miller
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Forecasting Hungarian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter method [PDF]
Acta Oeconomica, 2007 A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003.
Baran, S. +3 more
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Iran mortality rates using Lee-Carter model: Estimation and forecasting [PDF]
Iranian Journal of Insurance Research, 2013 Mortality forecasts are made in two ways: one is indirect forecasting through life expectancy forecasting and then converting it to age-specific death rate, and the second is direct forecasting of mortality rates.
A. Komijani, M. Koosheshi, L. Niakan
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Examining structural shifts in mortality using the Lee-Carter method [PDF]
, 2001 We present an extension of the Lee-Carter method of modeling mortality to examine structural shifts in trajectories of mortality. Austrian data consisting of 53 years of single-age mortality rates are subdivided into 30 24-year submatrices. Using singular value decomposition, the submatrices are decomposed into three component submatrices: 1) the ...
Lawrence R. Carter, Alexia Prskawetz
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Decelerating mortality rates in older ages and its prospects through Lee-Carter approach. [PDF]
PLoS ONE, 2012 The present study attempts to study the age pattern mortality and prospects through Lee-Carter approach. The objectives of the study are to examine the trend of mortality decline and life expectancy.
Awdhesh Yadav +2 more
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Forecasting Indonesian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter model and ANFIS method [PDF]
AIP Conference Proceedings, 2018 If information about the mortality rate for some future periods can be obtained in the present time then the financial planning and policy to be taken are expected to be better and directed. The model used to calculate the mortality rate in this paper is the Lee-Carter model. There are three parameters of the model, that is ax, bx and kt.
A. H. A. Zili, S. Mardiyati, D. Lestari
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Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality
International Journal of Forecasting, 2022 The introduction of the Lee-Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method has the merit of capturing the dynamics of mortality change by a single time index that is invariably linear.
Ugofilippo Basellini +2 more
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The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model [PDF]
North American Actuarial Journal, 2011 Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. Recent work on the latter has focused on modeling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modeling death rates is the Lee-Carter model.
RUSSOLILLO, Maria +4 more
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Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Lee-Carter method [PDF]
AIP Conference Proceedings, 2016 The population of many countries might undergo dramatic changes in the coming decades due to continuous increases in life expectancy. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure ...
Nuraini Ngataman +2 more
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Sensitivity of Selected Method of Estimation Based on the Lee-carter Model
Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 2022 Efficiency and the unbiasedness structure of three method of estimation namely: the Weighted Least Square, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Method of Moment were examined in this study. Using three scenarios labelled as Case I, II & III; where Case I is model simulation based on the distributional properties of the Lee Carter model, Case II ...
Regina Imaledo, Oluwafemi S. Oyamakin
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