Results 21 to 30 of about 13,607 (232)
Applied Sciences, 2022 The ongoing pandemic has resulted in the development of models dealing with the rate of virus spread and the modelling of mortality rates μx,t. A new method of modelling the mortality rates μx,t with different time intervals of higher and lower ...
Piotr Sliwka, Leslaw Socha
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A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality
Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence, 2015 Human mortality modeling and forecasting are important study fields since mortality rates are essential in financial and social policy making. Among many others, Lee Carter (LC) model is one of the most popular stochastic method in mortality forecasting.
Melek Basak, Duygun Fatih Demirel
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Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2010 This paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk (the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk) properly, a block bootstrap is ...
Xiaoming Liu, W. John Braun
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Mortality and life expectancy forecast for (comparatively) high mortality countries
Genus, 2018 Background The Lee–Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted extrapolative methods for forecasting mortality and life expectancy in industrial countries due to their simplicity and availability of high quality long time series data ...
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Using the Lee–Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data*
International Statistical Review, 2004 Summary The Lee–Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to work quite well given long time series of data. Here we consider how it can be used when there are few observations at uneven intervals. Assuming that the underlying model is correct and that the mortality index follows a random walk with drift, we find the method ...
Li, Nan +2 more
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Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex
Genus, 2018 Background An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition.
Gisou Diaz +2 more
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Long-Term Sales Forecasting Using Lee-Carter And Holt-Winters Methods
Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2011 <p style="text-justify: inter-cluster; text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; background: white; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">This study developed a statistical model for
Wassana Suwanvijit +3 more
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A Fuzzy-Random Extension of the Lee–Carter Mortality Prediction Model
International Journal of Computational Intelligence SystemsThe Lee–Carter model is a useful dynamic stochastic model to represent the evolution of central mortality rates throughout time. This model only considers the uncertainty about the coefficient related to the mortality trend over time but not to the age ...
Jorge de Andrés-Sánchez +1 more
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An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data
Demographic Research, 2014 Objective: IIn this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, via the software WinBUGS, to project future mortality for populations with limited data. In particular, we adapt some extensions of the
Jackie Li
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Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 2012 En este trabajo se aplica el método de Lee-Carter para proyectar la mortalidad de México. Dicho método supone una relación lineal entre el logaritmo natural de las tasas centrales de mortalidad y la edad y el tiempo; una de sus ventajas es que es parsimonioso, pues combina un modelo demográfico con pocos supuestos con el análisis de series de tiempo ...
Víctor Manuel García Guerrero +1 more
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