Results 1 to 10 of about 29,393 (141)
ARMA Models for Mortality Forecast
Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 2016 In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA ...
Natalja Šiškina, Jonas Šiaulys
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Smooth constrained mortality forecasting [PDF]
Demographic Research, 2019 Background: Mortality can be forecast by means of parametric models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. These methods either impose rigid modeling structures or produce implausible outcomes.
Carlo Giovanni Camarda
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Mortality and life expectancy forecast for (comparatively) high mortality countries [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Background The Lee–Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted extrapolative methods for forecasting mortality and life expectancy in industrial countries due to their simplicity and availability of high quality long time series data ...
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Lee–Carter Mortality Forecasting
Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 2012 In this paper, we focus on Lee–Carter mortality forecasting. Model residuals and future mortality trendsare explored. Predictions of the force of mortality for France, Belarus and Lithuania are provided and compared. Severalmodifications of the model are
Eglė Ignatavičiūtė +2 more
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Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo City, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic [PDF]
Population Health MetricsBackground The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased mortality rates, disrupting historical trends and making it challenging to forecast future life expectancy levels. São Paulo, the first city in Brazil to report a COVID-19 case and death, saw a
Maria L. Miranda +2 more
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Assessing SARS-CoV-2-related mortality rate in Russian regions, based on the econometric model
Инфекция и иммунитет, 2022 The objects of the study were the daily data on the population morbidity and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Russian regions, as well as regional medical, demographic and environmental data recorded in recent years.
Vladimir S. Stepanov
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Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model in Mortality Forecasting
Risks, 2023 We apply a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model to mortality forecasting. MSBVAR has not previously been applied in this context, and our results show that it is a promising tool for mortality forecasting. Our model shows better
Wanying Fu +3 more
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Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine [PDF]
Medičnì Perspektivi, 2016 Until 2030 the ulcer mortality will have a growing trend as estimated by the World Health Organization. Detection of countries and population groups with high risks for the ulcer mortality is possible using forecast method. The authors made a forecast of
Duzhiy I.D. +4 more
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Stochastic mortality forecasts for Bangladesh
PLOS ONE, 2022 Mortality forecasts are essential part for policymaking in any aging society. In recent years, methods to model and forecast mortality have improved considerably. Among them, Lee-Carter method is one of the most influential method. In this paper, Lee-Carter method is applied to forecast mortality and life expectancy of Bangladesh.
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Common Factor Cause-Specific Mortality Model
Risks, 2021 Recent pension reforms in Europe have implemented a link between retirement age and life expectancy. The accurate forecast of life tables and life expectancy is hence paramount for governmental policy and financial institutions.
Geert Zittersteyn +1 more
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