Results 11 to 20 of about 33,949 (297)
Mortality and life expectancy forecast for (comparatively) high mortality countries [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Background The Lee–Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted extrapolative methods for forecasting mortality and life expectancy in industrial countries due to their simplicity and availability of high quality long time series data ...
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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ARMA Models for Mortality Forecast
Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 2016 In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA ...
Natalja Šiškina, Jonas Šiaulys
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A Neural-Network Analyzer for Mortality Forecast [PDF]
ASTIN Bulletin, 2018 This article proposes a neural-network approach to predict and simulate human mortality rates. This semi-parametric model is capable to detect and duplicate non-linearities observed in the evolution of log-forces of mortality.
Hainaut, Donatien, Donatien Hainaut
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Stochastic mortality forecasts for Bangladesh [PDF]
PLOS ONE, 2022 Mortality forecasts are essential part for policymaking in any aging society. In recent years, methods to model and forecast mortality have improved considerably. Among them, Lee-Carter method is one of the most influential method.
Rabbie, Fazle A.M. +3 more
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Lee–Carter Mortality Forecasting
Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 2012 In this paper, we focus on Lee–Carter mortality forecasting. Model residuals and future mortality trendsare explored. Predictions of the force of mortality for France, Belarus and Lithuania are provided and compared. Severalmodifications of the model are
Eglė Ignatavičiūtė +2 more
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Techniques to Analyze and Forecast Mortality
, 2017 During the last few decades growth in life expectancy has resulted in increased pressure on personal and public finances. The increasing amount of attention paid on longevity risk and funding for old age has created the need for precise mortality models ...
Han Li (10885)
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Identification and Forecasting in Mortality Models [PDF]
The Scientific World Journal, 2014 Mortality models often have inbuilt identification issues challenging the statistician. The statistician can choose to work with well-defined freely varying parameters, derived as maximal invariants in this paper, or with ad hoc identified parameters which at first glance seem more intuitive, but which can introduce a number of unnecessary challenges ...
Bent Nielsen, Jens P. Nielsen
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Accounting for smoking in forecasting mortality and life expectancy [PDF]
The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2021 Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex differences in mortality.
Li, Yicheng, Raftery, Adrian E.
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Risks, 2017 This work proposes a backtesting analysis that compares the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975 ...
Carlo Maccheroni, Samuel Nocito
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Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Mortality forecasts are essential for predicting the future extent of population ageing, and for determining the sustainability of pension schemes and social security systems. They are also useful in setting life insurance premiums, and in helping governments plan for the changing needs of their societies for health care and other services (European ...
openaire +5 more sources