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Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Mortality forecasts are essential for predicting the future extent of population ageing, and for determining the sustainability of pension schemes and social security systems. They are also useful in setting life insurance premiums, and in helping governments plan for the changing needs of their societies for health care and other services (European ...
Fanny Janssen
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Lee–Carter Mortality Forecasting
Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 2012 In this paper, we focus on Lee–Carter mortality forecasting. Model residuals and future mortality trendsare explored. Predictions of the force of mortality for France, Belarus and Lithuania are provided and compared. Severalmodifications of the model are
Eglė Ignatavičiūtė +2 more
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Smooth constrained mortality forecasting [PDF]
Demographic Research, 2019 Background: Mortality can be forecast by means of parametric models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. These methods either impose rigid modeling structures or produce implausible outcomes.
Carlo Giovanni Camarda
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Application of Machine Learning to Mortality Modeling and Forecasting [PDF]
Risks, 2019 Estimation of future mortality rates still plays a central role among life insurers in pricing their products and managing longevity risk. In the literature on mortality modeling, a wide number of stochastic models have been proposed, most of them ...
Susanna Levantesi, Virginia Pizzorusso
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ARMA Models for Mortality Forecast
Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 2016 In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA ...
Natalja Šiškina, Jonas Šiaulys
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Identification and Forecasting in Mortality Models [PDF]
The Scientific World Journal, 2014 Mortality models often have inbuilt identification issues challenging the statistician. The statistician can choose to work with well-defined freely varying parameters, derived as maximal invariants in this paper, or with ad hoc identified parameters ...
Bent Nielsen, Jens P. Nielsen
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Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Background An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition.
Gisou Diaz +2 more
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Mortality and life expectancy forecast for (comparatively) high mortality countries [PDF]
Genus, 2018 Background The Lee–Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted extrapolative methods for forecasting mortality and life expectancy in industrial countries due to their simplicity and availability of high quality long time series data ...
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Forecasting Neonatal Mortality in Portugal
Engineering Proceedings, 2023 In order to achieve a more efficient allocation of healthcare resources in the near future, it is crucial to understand the patterns and causes of excess mortality and hospitalizations. Neonatal mortality still poses a significant challenge, particularly
Rodrigo B. Ventura +7 more
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Estimating the term structure of mortality: an application to actuarial studies [PDF]
Mathematics and Modeling in Finance, 2021 Insurance companies and pension funds which deal with human lifetime are interested in mortality forecasting to minimize the longevity risk. In this paper, we studied the mortality forecasting model based on the age-specific death rates by the usage of ...
Marzieh Vahdani, Ali Safdari
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