Results 11 to 20 of about 110,162 (294)
Risks, 2022 The prediction of future mortality improvements is of substantial importance for areas such as population projection, government welfare policies, pension planning and annuity pricing.
Sixian Tang, Jackie Li, Leonie Tickle
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Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain
Mathematics, 2022 We present a mortality model where future stochastic changes in population-wide mortality are driven by a finite-state hierarchical Markov chain. A baseline mortality in an initial ‘Alive’ state is calculated as the average logarithm of the observed ...
Jaap Spreeuw +2 more
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Forecasting Mortality Rates with a Two-Step LASSO Based Vector Autoregressive Model
Risks, 2022 This paper proposes a two-step LASSO based vector autoregressive (2-LVAR) model to forecast mortality rates. Within the VAR framework, recent studies have developed a spatial–temporal autoregressive (STAR) model, in which age-specific mortality rates are
Thilini Dulanjali Kularatne +2 more
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Forecasting, 2021 A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. An accurate model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and resource ...
Ka Kin Lam, Bo Wang
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Stochastic mortality forecasts for Bangladesh
PLOS ONE, 2022 Mortality forecasts are essential part for policymaking in any aging society. In recent years, methods to model and forecast mortality have improved considerably. Among them, Lee-Carter method is one of the most influential method. In this paper, Lee-Carter method is applied to forecast mortality and life expectancy of Bangladesh.
Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi +1 more
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Mortality Forecasting with an Age-Coherent Sparse VAR Model
Risks, 2021 This paper proposes an age-coherent sparse Vector Autoregression mortality model, which combines the appealing features of existing VAR-based mortality models, to forecast future mortality rates.
Hong Li, Yanlin Shi
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Mathematics, 2021 Linking pensions to longevity developments at retirement age has been one of the most common policy responses of pension schemes to aging populations. The introduction of automatic stabilizers is primarily motivated by cost containment objectives, but ...
Jorge M. Bravo, Mercedes Ayuso
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FinTech, 2023 Longevity is without a doubt on the rise throughout the world due to advances in technology and health. Since 1960, Ghana’s average annual mortality improvement has been about 1.236%.
Samuel Asante Gyamerah +3 more
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A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality
Econometrics, 2019 The prototypical Lee–Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are
Niels Haldrup +1 more
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A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting
Risks, 2022 Mortality improvements and life expectancies have been increasing in recent decades, leading to growing interest in understanding mortality risk and longevity risk. Studies of mortality forecasting are of interest among actuaries and demographers because
Norkhairunnisa Redzwan, Rozita Ramli
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