Results 31 to 40 of about 818 (135)
Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis [PDF]
, 2016 This paper explores the effectiveness of several methods to reduce the overconfidence bias when eliciting continuous probability distributions in the context of multicriteria decision analysis.
Ferretti, Valentina +3 more
core +2 more sources
Partially Identified Prevalence Estimation under Misclassification using the Kappa Coefficient [PDF]
, 2010 We discuss a new strategy for prevalence estimation in the presence of misclassification. Our method is applicable when misclassification probabilities are unknown but independent replicate measurements are available.
Augustin, Thomas +2 more
core +1 more source
Is overconfidence an individual difference?
Judgment and Decision MakingSome scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption.
Sophia Li, Randall Hale, Don A. Moore
doaj +1 more source
Journal of Business EconomicsAbstract We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time period with no evidence of learning on the
Christoph Merkle, Philipp Schreiber
openaire +3 more sources
Overprecision is a property of thinking systems
Psychological Review, 2019 Overprecision is the excessive certainty in the accuracy of one’s judgment. This paper proposes a new theory to explain it. The theory holds that overprecision in judgment results from neglect of all the ways in which one could be wrong. When there are many ways to be wrong, it can be difficult to consider them all.
openaire +5 more sources
The Expectation-Based Loss-Averse Newsvendor [PDF]
, 2012 We modify the classic single-period inventory management problem by assuming that the newsvendor is expectation-based loss averse according to Koszegi and Rabin (2006, 2007).
Herweg, Fabian
core +4 more sources
Thinking orientation and overconfidence: a newsvendor study
Frontiers in Behavioral EconomicsThis study uses the newsvendor problem to investigate the correlations between thinking orientation, overconfidence, and economic outcome. We aim to shed light on possible interconnections between these variables and extend the existing conceptual models
Julian Wiesner +2 more
doaj +1 more source
Dynamic nonlinear pricing: Biased expectations, inattention, and bill shock [PDF]
, 2012 Recent research highlights the importance of biased expectations and inattention for nonlinear pricing in dynamic environments. Findings are: (1) Three-part tariffs, such as cellular service contracts, exploit consumer overconfidence.
Grubb, Michael D.
core +1 more source
Government support, regional well‐being, and the pivots of UK SMEs during a crisis
European Management Review, EarlyView.Abstract Pivoting—a substantive transformation of the established business model (e.g., reformulation of goods, services, processes, or organizational methods in a new or significantly improved manner)—has emerged as a crisis response strategy of small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs).
Chau M. Chu, Bach Nguyen
wiley +1 more source
Managerial Overoptimism and Discretionary Disclosure
Journal of Business Finance &Accounting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We examine the effect of managerial overoptimism on discretionary disclosure of subjective information, such as earnings forecasts. The market applies a discount upon disclosure to capture the possibility that the revealed subjective expectation is too optimistic.
Nikolaj Niebuhr Lambertsen +1 more
wiley +1 more source