Results 21 to 30 of about 110,162 (294)
Forecasting multiple functional time series in a group structure: an application to mortality’ [PDF]
, 2020 When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how to reconcile ...
Haberman, S., Shang, H.L.
core +2 more sources
Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model in Mortality Forecasting
Risks, 2023 We apply a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model to mortality forecasting. MSBVAR has not previously been applied in this context, and our results show that it is a promising tool for mortality forecasting. Our model shows better
Wanying Fu +3 more
doaj +1 more source
Population Review, 2013 China's life expectancy at birth is currently being debated; the 2010 census data may exaggerate the figure and its rate of increase. In this paper, with an extension of the Lee-Carter method for limited data, we use China's 1982, 1990 and 2000 censuses to forecast the mortality pattern and life expectancy for the 2000 to 2030 period.
Jiang, Quanbao +2 more
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Risks, 2020 The joint modelling of mortality rates for multiple populations has gained increasing popularity in areas such as government planning and insurance pricing.
Yanlin Shi, Sixian Tang, Jackie Li
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DemografieThis article discusses the use of the Lee-Carter model, one of the most widely used methods for mortality forecasting. It also discusses its modified versions, namely the cohort and coherent variants, which were developed to improve the forecast accuracy
David Morávek
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Mortality Index Simulation for Forecasting Malaysian Mortality Rates
ASM Science Journal, 2023 Mortality studies are very important in demography and actuarial areas because they assist policymakers and life insurers in managing longevity and mortality risks. In recent decades, many extrapolative mortality models have been developed following the Lee-Carter model.
Pavitra Sivasundaram +2 more
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Multivariate functional time series forecasting: Application to age-specific mortality rates [PDF]
, 2017 This study considers the forecasting of mortality rates in multiple populations. We propose a model that combines mortality forecasting and functional data analysis (FDA).
Gao, Yuan, Shang, Han Lin
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Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models [PDF]
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2008 Abstract This paper develops a framework for developing forecasts of future mortality rates. We discuss the suitability of six stochastic mortality models for forecasting future mortality and estimating the density of mortality rates at different ages.
Andrew J. G. Cairns +5 more
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Frontiers in MedicineBackgroundThis study assesses the worldwide cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributed to air pollution, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.MethodsWe explored the impact of air pollution on CVDs globally, regionally, and ...
Qingsong Mao +3 more
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Two-Population Mortality Forecasting: An Approach Based on Model Averaging
RisksThe analysis of residual life expectancy evolution at retirement age holds great importance for life insurers and pension schemes. Over the last 30 years, numerous models for forecasting mortality have been introduced, and those that allow us to predict ...
Luca De Mori +3 more
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