Overprecision increases subsequent surprise. [PDF]
PLoS ONE, 2020 Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment.
Don A Moore, Derek Schatz
doaj +9 more sources
A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2010 Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause.
Uriel Haran +2 more
doaj +7 more sources
A tale of two biases: Unpacking the relationship of overestimation and overprecision on firm performance [PDF]
Strategic Management JournalAbstractResearch SummaryOverconfidence is widely known to influence firm decision‐making. Yet there remains confusion regarding the concept because it comprises three key aspects: overplacement, overestimation, and overprecision. Using archival data, we employ a firm‐level overconfidence construct to simultaneously analyze the impacts of both ...
Wayne G. Borchardt +3 more
core +5 more sources
Cogent Psychology, 2023 Most of us understand that our rationality is bounded by our cognitive limitations, knowledge, set of beliefs, etc. Generally, however, people are not sufficiently aware of their own bounded rationality and demonstrate overprecision vis-à-vis their ...
Nirit Yuviler-Gavish +2 more
doaj +2 more sources
"Yes, we know!" (Over)confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs. [PDF]
PLoS ONE, 2018 Overconfidence has been reported to be a common bias among entrepreneurs and might be one cause of the high failure rates observed for new ventures.
Viktorija Ilieva +2 more
doaj +2 more sources
Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd [PDF]
Scientific ReportsHow can people’s ability to make accurate estimations be boosted? Psychological research on the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd suggests that people’s judgments improve when they use a simple consider-the-opposite-strategy, dubbed—inspired by Enlightenment ...
Tamara Gomilsek +2 more
doaj +2 more sources
Overconfidence over the lifespan [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2017 This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age. Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little evidence that overestimation of one’s performance or overplacement of one’s ...
Julia P. Prims, Don A. Moore
doaj +2 more sources
Estimation of effective number of breeders and effective population size in an abundant and heavily exploited marine teleost. [PDF]
Evol ApplAbstract Obtaining reliable estimates of the effective number of breeders (Nb) and generational effective population size (Ne) for fishery‐important species is challenging because they are often iteroparous and highly abundant, which can lead to bias and imprecision.
Bertram A +7 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations. [PDF]
PLoS One, 2018 Overconfidence is sometimes assumed to be a human universal, but there remains a dearth of data systematically measuring overconfidence across populations and contexts.
Muthukrishna M +5 more
europepmc +10 more sources
Deliberation in Guesstimation. [PDF]
Cogn SciAbstract In many real‐world settings, people often have to make judgments with incomplete information. Estimating unknown quantities without using precise quantitative modeling and data is called guesstimation, which is often needed in forecasting settings.
Salikutluk V, Jäkel F.
europepmc +2 more sources