Results 11 to 20 of about 818 (135)
Two Tales of Uncertainty: Calibrating Overprecision With Self‐Regulated Entrepreneurial Learning
Strategic ChangeABSTRACTEntrepreneurial success strongly depends on decision‐making under uncertainty. Uncertainty is particularly pronounced when entrepreneurs are confronted with novel situations characterized by an absence of information. While cognitive biases, such as overprecision, can have a negative impact on decision‐making processes by distorting information‐
Julian Kolbe +2 more
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Same or Not the Same? Comparison Between Employees Prone to Overplacement, Overestimation, and Overprecision in Information Security [PDF]
Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System SciencesOverconfidence has been shown to have a detrimental effect on information security in enterprises. However, research on this systematic misperception of one’s abilities and skills is fragmented, and evidence on who is at risk of overconfidence is scarce.
Muriel Frank +2 more
core +6 more sources
Constraints on Thinking Cause Overprecision
, 2021 Overprecision--excessive faith in the accuracy of one's beliefs--may be the most consequential of the many biases in judgment. We offer a theory to explain the ubiquity of overprecision as a consequence of finite cognitive capacity. The individual who considers only a subset of all possibilities or hypotheses will come away excessively confident in ...
Don A Moore +2 more
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Lexicon Philosophicum, 2021 Overconfidence occurs when persons overestimate their abilities in general or with respect to a specific task/context. This bias causes systematic errors, yet it is found in 70% of tested individuals, suggesting that this trait gives an adaptive ...
Gilberto Corbellini
doaj +1 more source
Overconfidence in the Market for Lemons [PDF]
, 2011 We extend Akerlof ’s (1970) “Market for Lemons” by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is at display for sale.
Herweg, Fabian, Müller, Daniel
core +5 more sources
Simplified mental representations as a cause of overprecision
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2021 Although no consensus on the issue exists yet, some evidence indicates that people are typically overprecise in their inferences. In particular, subjective confidence intervals are often too narrow when compared with Bayesian ones. This paper uses a quasi-Bayesian theory and lab experiments to explore overprecision when people learn about the empirical
López Pérez, Raúl +2 more
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Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Academy of Management Proceedings, 2022 Every decision depends on a forecast of its consequences. We examine the calibration of the single longest and most complete forecasting project. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has, since 1968, collected predictions of key economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n =
Sandy Campbell, Don A. Moore
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Methods for Population Adjustment with Limited Access to Individual Patient Data: A Review and Simulation Study [PDF]
, 2021 Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers.
Baio, Gianluca +2 more
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Quantifying noise in survey expectations
Quantitative Economics, Volume 14, Issue 2, Page 609-650, May 2023., 2023 Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the insight that theoretical models of expectation formation predict
Artūras Juodis, Simas Kučinskas
wiley +1 more source
Energy Science &Engineering, Volume 10, Issue 7, Page 2205-2223, July 2022., 2022 1. A coal and gas outburst experiment under high‐stress condition was carried out. 2. S–GP–T response laws surrounding the burst hole were evaluated. 3. The burst coal distribution characteristics were obtained. Abstract Deep mining will increase the likelihood of coal and gas outburst accidents and do harm to the safety of coal mining.
Bo Zhao +5 more
wiley +1 more source