Results 21 to 30 of about 818 (135)

Green Supply Chain Decisions and Revenue‐Sharing Contracts under Manufacturers’ Overconfidence

Journal of Mathematics, Volume 2022, Issue 1, 2022., 2022
Overconfidence is a prevalent and potentially catastrophic behaviour in judgment and decision‐making. In this paper, we define manufacturers’ overconfidence as a belief bias that they overestimate the impact of product greenness on demand and the accuracy of demand uncertainty.
Hui Zhou, Lu Liu, Weifan Jiang, Shengsheng Li, Jen-Chih Yao   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Overconfidence in the Markets for Lemons [PDF]

, 2013
We extend Akerlof (1970)’s “Market for Lemons” by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is on display for sale.
Herweg, Fabian, Müller, Daniel
core   +2 more sources

Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

European Journal of Operational Research, 2023
zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Valentina Ferretti, Gilberto Montibeller, Detlof von Winterfeldt   +2 more
openaire   +3 more sources

Overconfidence Across Cultures

Collabra: Psychology, 2018
Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in overconfidence has been conflicting.
Don A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, Ekaterina Y. Goncharova   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain [PDF]

, 2019
The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide
Juanchich, M., Løhre, E., Shepherd, T. G., Sirota, M., Teigen, K. H.   +4 more
core   +3 more sources

Overconfidence, optimism and entrepreneurship [PDF]

, 2018
Overconfidence is one of the alleged drivers for market entry. However, establishing its effect is challenging and much of the existing entrepreneurship literature confusingly conflates overconfidence with optimism. In the present study, we use validated
Bernoster, I. (Indy), Rietveld, C.A. (Niels), Thurik, A.R. (Roy), Torrès, O. (Olivier)   +3 more
core   +2 more sources

Joy leads to overconfidence, and a simple countermeasure [PDF]

, 2015
Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real-life domains, with often far-reaching consequences. This study identifies a mechanism that can cause overconfidence and demonstrates a simple, effective ...
A Bechara, A Galasso, A Gerrards-Hesse, A Koriat, A Koriat, AC Cooper, AE Bernardo, AM Goel, AM Isen, AM Isen, AM Isen, AM Isen, B Barber, B Fischhoff, B Kuvaas, BD Pulford, C Bengtsson, C Camerer, C Heath, C Holt, C Holt, C McFarland, CM Allwood, CM Allwood, CO Fritz, CR Colvin, CWM Yeung, D Benton, D Budescu, D Cesarini, D Cesarini, D Dunning, D Dunning, D Hirshleifer, D Kahneman, D Kahneman, D Moore, DA Moore, DD Johnson, DR Proffitt, E Diener, E Hoelzl, E Kirchler, E Merrow, ES Berner, F Faul, GH Bower, GJ Gorn, GJ Kuhn, GL Clore, GR Norman, HR Arkes, J Cohen, J Golec, J Ifcher, JB Soll, JB Soll, JE Russo, JL Freedman, JL Kurtz, JP Forgas, JS Lerner, JW Ely, K Dunbar, K Gasper, K Gasper, K Kadous, K White, L Christensen, LW Busenitz, M Seligman, MF Scheier, N Schwarz, ND Weinstein, P Blavatskyy, P Brañas-Garza, P Ekman, P Koellinger, P Koellinger, P Schaefer, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Philipp Koellinger, R Colvin, R Davidson, R Schwarzer, R Westermann, RA Cummins, RE Thayer, RP Larrick, S DellaVigna, S Gosling, S Hamann, S Taylor, S Vautier, SE Maxwell, SE Taylor, SE Taylor, SH Ahmed, T Fu, T Åstebro, T Åstebro, Theresa Treffers, U Haran, U Haran, U Hoffrage, U Malmendier, U Malmendier, U Simonsohn, V Smith, Y Ren   +109 more
core   +4 more sources

Research on Overconfidence in Decision-Making for the Capacity Recovery of Damaged Power Systems

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2014
This paper studies the influence of two types of overconfident behavior, overestimation and overprecision, on decision of capacity recovery when power system’s critical capacity is seriously damaged.
Xing Bao
doaj   +1 more source

The MUSCLES Treasury Survey. V. FUV Flares on Active and Inactive M Dwarfs [PDF]

, 2018
M dwarf stars are known for their vigorous flaring. This flaring could impact the climate of orbiting planets, making it important to characterize M dwarf flares at the short wavelengths that drive atmospheric chemistry and escape.
Brown, Alexander, France, Kevin, Froning, Cynthia S., Hu, Renyu, Linsky, Jeffrey, Loyd, R. O. Parke, Miguel, Yamila, Redfield, Seth, Rugheimer, Sarah, Schneider, Christian, Segura, Antígona, Tian, Feng, Youngblood, Allison   +12 more
core   +3 more sources

How might teachers enable self-confidence? A review study [PDF]

, 2013
In the context of learner-centred learning and curricular reform, self-confidence is invoked as an important construct. However, there is no easily available research-informed guidance on what self-confidence means for the professional teacher.
MacLellan, Effie
core   +1 more source